Back to the sky

The Study

thinking out loud

Window side Rationality & science

Where the light is coldest, and an argument has to survive being looked at in it.

A p-value never promised you anything

It answers one narrow question — how surprising this data would look if nothing at all were going on — and we have spent a century hearing it answer a different one. The fix is not a stricter threshold, because the threshold was never the part that was lying. It is remembering which question we asked.

7 min readEpistemic status: confident

Old books & maps History

What happened, who wrote it down, and what the writing quietly left out.

Every border was a sentence before it was a line

Nepal's southern edge was described in prose for decades before anyone walked it with a chain, and the survey inherited the prose's ambiguities rather than settling them. I keep finding that the drawing is downstream of the wording — and I keep having to move my own dates when a new letter turns up.

12 min readEpistemic status: still updating

The reading chair Politics

Opinions held at reading pace, and stated as opinions.

Federalism arrived before the federalists

The 2015 constitution drew seven provinces rather faster than it produced anyone whose career depended on those provinces working. That is not an argument against them. It is an argument about sequence, and I am genuinely unsure whether the sequence could have run the other way.

9 min readEpistemic status: speculative

The projector corner Video

The same thinking out loud, said rather than written.